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     Election 2004




WHITE HOUSE
        
          Exit poll
   

          The reelection of the President

   
          Election match-ups
                                  
                          Final polls, plus projections
    
 
                        Full details
                  
                          Bush vs. Kerry vs. Nader (etc.) bar chart
                  
               Bush vs. Kerry 2-way summary table

                  
                          Tracking poll trendlines

 
          Candidate Ratings

                                  
                       Bush · Kerry · Cheney · Edwards
      
          Misc. campaign questions
       
          Democratic nomination polls

CONGRESS

 

   

      BUSH KERRY NADER OTHER   Margin  
      % % % %   Bush  
                   
 

ELECTION RESULTS
Based on certified results, compiled by the Committee for the Study of the American Electorate 

50.75 48.30 0.36 0.59   2.45  
 
                   
  Pollster Vote Projections
     DETAILS  Survey BUSH KERRY NADER OTHER   Margin
    Dates % % % %   Bush Kerry
                   
  Zogby 11/1-2 49.4 49.1       0.3  
  Battleground: Tarrance (R) * 10/31 - 11/1 51.2 47.8 0.5 0.5   3.4  
  Battleground: Lake (D) ** 10/31 - 11/1 48.6 50.7         2.1
  TIPP 10/30 - 11/1 50.1 48.0 1.1 0.8   2.1  
  Harris 10/29 - 11/1 49 48 2 1   1  
  Democracy Corps (D) 10/29-31 48.7 49.5 0.6 1.0     0.8
  Gallup 10/29-31 49 49 1 1      
  Pew Research Center 10/27-30 51 48 1     3  
 
                 
 

Final Trial Heats ***

        OTHER/    
     DETAILS Survey BUSH KERRY NADER UNSURE   Margin
    Dates % % % %   Bush Kerry
                   
  Marist College 11/1 49 50 - 1     1
  GWU Battleground 10/31 - 11/1 50 46 1 4   4  
  TIPP 10/30 - 11/1 48.6 45.3 0.9 5.2   3.3  
  CBS News 10/29 - 11/1 49 47 1 3   2  
  FOX News 10/30-31 46 48 1 5     2
  CNN/USA Today/Gallup 10/29-31 49 47 - 4   2  
  Democracy Corps (D) 10/29-31 47 48 1 3     1
  NBC News/Wall St Journal 10/29-31 48 47 1 4   1  
  Zogby **** 10/29-31 48 47 1 4   1  
  ABC News 10/28-31 49 48 1 3   1  
  Washington Post 10/28-31 49 48 1 3   1  
  American Research Group 10/28-30 48 48 1 3      
  Pew Research Center 10/27-30 48 45 1 6   3  
  Newsweek 10/27-29 50 44 1 5   6  
 
 

PollingReport.com

  _________________
* Tarrance projection based on unaided trial heat question.
** Lake Snell Perry projection based on aided trial heat question.

*** Final Trial Heats: Based on surveys of likely voters, with leaners included.
**** Zogby: Last set of unallocated results
released, although polling continued through election day.

 

Four More Years
   
The Harris Poll. Nov. 9-14, 2004. N=1,014 adults nationwide. MoE ± 3 (for all adults).

.

"Overall do you think that the election process for the presidential election was or was not conducted fairly?"

.

Was Was Not Unsure
% % %

ALL

81 16 4

  Republicans

95 4 1

  Democrats

68 27 4

  Independents

83 15 2

.

"Do you think that there are many, some, only a few or no attempts to intimidate or prevent legitimate voters from voting?"

.

Many Some A Few None Unsure
% % % % %

ALL

8 23 26 39 4

  Republicans

2 15 31 50 2

  Democrats

12 26 24 35 3

  Independents

10 27 25 35 4

 

Pew Research Center survey conducted by Princeton Survey Research Associates International. Nov. 5-8, 2004. N=1,209 adults nationwide who said they voted in the 2004 general election. MoE ± 3.5 (for the total sample). Respondents were also interviewed in Oct. 2004.

.

"What one issue mattered most to you in deciding how you voted for president?" Open-ended. Multiple responses accepted. Asked of Bush and Kerry voters. Form 1 (N=569).

.

%

Iraq/The war

27

Economy/Jobs

14

Moral values

9

Terrorism/Security

9

Honesty/Integrity

5

Other Bush

5

Other Kerry

4

Health care

3

Abortion

3

Direction of the country

2

Candidate's religiosity, morals

2

Strength/Leadership

2

Foreign policy

2

Gay marriage/Marriage

2

Don't change course

2

Other

15

Unsure/Nothing/Everything

5

.

"Which ONE issue mattered most to you in deciding how you voted for president . . . ?" Respondents read list of options below. Options rotated. Asked of Bush and Kerry voters. Form 2 (N=567).

.

ALL BUSH
Voters
KERRY
Voters
% % %

Moral values

27 44 7

Iraq

22 11 34

Economy/Jobs

21 7 36

Terrorism

14 24 3

Health care

4 1 8

Education

4 2 6

Taxes

3 4 2

Other (vol.)

4 5 3

Unsure

1 2 1

.

"Now that the campaign is over, how satisfied were you with the choice of presidential candidates? Would you say that you were very satisfied, fairly satisfied, not very satisfied, or not at all satisfied?"

.

Very Fairly Not Very Not At All Unsure
% % % % %

11/5-8/04

33 33 16 16 2

11/00

24 44 18 9 5

11/96

18 33 24 22 3

11/92

24 37 21 16 2

11/88

26 36 20 17 1

.

"Compared to past presidential elections, would you say there was more discussion of issues in this campaign or less discussion of issues?"

.

More Less Same (vol.) Unsure
% % % %

11/5-8/04

47 42 7 4

11/00

46 36 13 5

11/96

25 65 6 4

11/92

59 34 4 3

.

"Compared to past presidential elections, would you say there was MORE mud slinging or negative campaigning in this campaign or LESS mud slinging or negative campaigning in this campaign?"

.

More Less Same (vol.) Unsure
% % % %

11/5-8/04

72 14 12 2

11/00

34 46 16 4

11/96

49 36 12 3

11/92

68 16 14 2

.

"Would you say the press has been fair or unfair in the way it has covered [see below] election campaign?"

.

Fair Unfair Unsure
% % %
John Kerry's 65 31 4
George W. Bush's 56 40 4

.

"Generally, are you happy or unhappy that the Republican Party maintained control of the U.S. Congress?"

.

Happy Unhappy Unsure
% % %

11/5-8/04

51 44 5

.

"Are you happy or unhappy that George W. Bush was reelected president?"

.

Happy Unhappy Unsure
% % %

11/5-8/04

53 43 4

.

"In the election, how confident are you that your vote was accurately counted . . . ?" Form 1 (N=601)

.

Very
Confident
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