The Conference Board Consumer
Confidence Survey: Methodology

The Consumer Confidence Survey is conducted for the Conference Board by TNS. The questionnaires are mailed to a nationwide representative sample of 5,000 households, of which roughly 3,500 typically respond. Each month, a different panel of 5,000 households is surveyed.

The Index is based on responses to five questions included in the survey:

1. Respondents' appraisal of current business conditions.

2. Respondents' expectations regarding business conditions six months hence.

3. Respondents' appraisal of the current employment conditions.

4. Respondents' expectations regarding employment conditions six months hence.

5. Respondents' expectations regarding their total family income six months hence.

For each of the five questions, there are three response options: POSITIVE, NEGATIVE, and NEUTRAL.

The response proportions to each question are seasonally adjusted. For each of the five questions (above), the POSITIVE figure is divided by the sum of the POSITIVE and NEGATIVE to yield a proportion, which we call the "RELATIVE" value. For each question, the average RELATIVE for the calendar year 1985 is then used as a benchmark to yield the INDEX value for that question. The Indexes are then averaged together as follows: Consumer Confidence Index: Average of all five Indexes; Present Situation Index: Average of Indexes for questions 1 and 3; Expectations Index: Average of Indexes for questions 2, 4, and 5.

-- The Conference Board

RBC CASH Index: Methodology

The RBC CASH Index is based on questions covering attitudes about the local economy now and in the future, personal finances now and in the future, comfort with making major purchases and other household purchases, confidence in job security and in the ability to save and invest for retirement or education, and job loss experience for self, friends and family in the recent past, as well as job loss expectations for self, friends and family in the near future.

-- Ipsos-Public Affairs

TIPP Indicators: Methodology

TIPP Economic Optimism Index
The index is based upon responses to three questions:

1. In the next six months, do you think that economic conditions in the country will be better, worse, or about the same as compared to now?

2. In the next six months, do you think that your personal financial situation will be better, worse, or about the same as compared to now?

3. How satisfied are you with the current federal economic policies meant to keep the economy going in the right direction: very satisfied, somewhat satisfied, not very satisfied or not at all satisfied?

TIPP Presidential Leadership Index
The index is based upon responses to three questions:

1. Overall, is your opinion of George W. Bush generally favorable, generally unfavorable, or are you not familiar enough to say one way or another?

2. In general, do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling his job as president, or are you not familiar enough to say one way or the other?

3. How would you describe the leadership that president Bush is providing for the country? Would you say it is very strong, strong, moderate, weak or very weak?

TIPP National Outlook Index
The index is derived from six components: the scores for the TIPP Economic Optimism Index and the TIPP Presidential Leadership Index, and responses to the following four questions:

1. In general, how satisfied are you with the direction things are going in the country at this time? Would you say you are very satisfied, somewhat satisfied, not very satisfied or not at all satisfied?

2. Generally speaking, how satisfied are you with the direction things are going in the country at this time in terms of morals and ethics? Would you say you are very satisfied, somewhat satisfied, not very satisfied or not at all satisfied?

3. Generally speaking, over the next six months, do you think that the position of the United States as a world leader will be better, worse, or about the same as it is now?

4. In the next six months, do you think that your quality of life will be better, worse, or about the same as compared to now?

Index Calculation
Each index represents an average based on telephone interviews conducted with approximately 1,000 adults nationwide each month. The index can range from 0 to 100, and is derived by comparing the positive and negative responses while disregarding non-responses (such as "not sure" or "no answer").

1. If the question assumes either one positive or one negative response (better or worse, approve or disapprove), the following formula is used to calculate this question index component:

K= 50 +0.5*(p(+) - p(-))

where p(+) is the percent that answered positively, p(-) is the percent that answered negatively.

2. If the question allows a choice from two positive or two negative responses (very satisfied, somewhat satisfied, not very satisfied or not at all satisfied), the following formula is used to calculate this question index component:

K= 50 + 0.5*(p1(+) - p1(-)) + 0.25*(p2(+) - p2(-))

where p1(+) is the percent which answered strongly positive, p1(-) is the percent which answered strongly negative, p2(+) is the percent answered moderate positively, and p2(-) is the percent answered moderately negative.

The question components are averaged to calculate the index. When an index level is more than 50, the number giving a positive response is more than the number giving a negative response. When all answers are strongly positive, the index is 100. When all answers are strongly negative, the index is 0.

-- TIPP/TechnoMetrica Market Intelligence