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WorldPublicOpinion.org 11/20
World Publics Favor More Wind and Solar Energy
A new WorldPublicOpinion.org poll of 21 nations finds very strong support for the government requiring utilities to use more alternative energy, such as wind and solar, and requiring businesses to use energy more efficiently, even if these steps increase the costs of energy and other products. . . .

ABC News 11/19
Holiday Spending Plans Plummet
Americans plan to cut back drastically on holiday spending this year, a dismal prospect for retailers in their most critical season. Fifty-one percent in this ABC News poll say they'll spend less this year than last on holiday gifts, matching the sharpest consumer retreat in polls dating back 23 years -- last seen ahead of the dreadful Christmas retail performance just after the 1990-91 recession. . . .

ABC News 11/18
Confidence Drops to a 22-Year Low
Consumer confidence dropped this week to its lowest in 22 years of weekly polls by ABC News, hammered by the global economic crisis and threatening a grim holiday season for the nation's retailers. . . .

Washington Post 11/18
Voters' Vantage Point: SCOTUS
President-elect Barack Obama is expected to have the opportunity to appoint several justices to the Supreme Court, with much of the speculation centered on Justice John Paul Stevens, the oldest and longest-serving of the nine. While Stevens is giving few signals about when he intends to step down, voters who cast their ballots with the high court in mind made some of their views known on Election Day. . . .

Washington Post 11/15
Voters' Vantage Point: The Economy
... The economy's rise as the election's top issue helped propel Barack Obama's campaign to victory, and amid widespread concern over the economy's direction are signs most voters who cast a ballot with the economy in mind favor a stronger - and different - approach from the federal government. . . .

Pew Research Center 11/13
High Marks for the Campaign, a High Bar for Obama
A week after the election, voters are feeling good about themselves, the presidential campaign and Barack Obama. Looking ahead, they have high expectations for the Obama administration, with two-thirds predicting that he will have a successful first term. . . .

UVA: Rhodes Cook 11/13
From Republican lock to Republican lockout?
... It is hard to imagine that barely 20 years ago, it was fashionable to talk of a Republican 'lock' -- a GOP dominance of the electoral map so strong that it appeared to guarantee the party possession of the White House for years to come. But, as is often said: That was then and this is now. . . .

ABC News: The Numbers 11/11
Ideological Underpinnings
Republicans pondering their fate and future have noted that while there was a partisan shift in voter turnout this year, there wasn't an ideological one: Conservatives still outnumber liberals by 50 percent. It's true -- but the comfort may be, let's say, a cool one. . . .

New York Times: Stan Greenberg 11/11
Goodbye, Reagan Democrats
I'm finished with the Reagan Democrats of Macomb County in suburban Detroit after making a career of spotlighting their middle-class anger and frustrations about race and Democratic politicians. . . .

New York Times 11/11
For South, a Waning Hold on National Politics
... By voting so emphatically for Senator John McCain over Mr. Obama -- supporting him in some areas in even greater numbers than they did President Bush -- voters from Texas to South Carolina and Kentucky may have marginalized their region for some time to come, political experts say. . . .

WorldPublicOpinion.org 11/11
Ensuring Basic Healthcare, Food, and Education Needs
A new WorldPublicOpinion.org poll of 21 nations around the world finds that large majorities in every country say their government should be responsible for ensuring that citizens can meet their basic needs for food, healthcare, and education. . . .

CNN 11/10
Belief that country headed in right direction at new low
... Only 16 percent of those questioned in a new CNN/Opinion Research Corporation survey released Monday say things are going well in the country today. That's an all-time low. . . . The all-time low on the public's mood may have something to do with the poll's finding that President Bush is the most unpopular president since approval ratings were first sought more than six decades ago. . . .

IndyStar.com: J. Ann Selzer 11/10
Worry drives pollster to get Indiana right
... The secret to my success as a pollster is that I know how much to worry and where to direct that worry-driven energy. I've been worrying about Indiana for months. We predicted a tight race with Obama one point up, and that is exactly what happened. . . .

New York Times 11/9
Dissecting the Changing Electorate
One way to consider Barack Obama's success last Tuesday is to consider John McCain's failure. By virtually every electoral measure -- including age, sex, race, religion, income and region -- Mr. McCain lost ground won by George W. Bush four years ago. . . .

Associated Press 11/8
Exit Poll Confirms Partisan Shift
The 2008 presidential election saw the biggest partisan shift in a generation -- more of a rejection of Republicans than an embrace of Democrats -- but voter surveys find no broad ideological realignment behind that shift. . . .

Los Angeles Times 11/8
L.A.'s shade of blue
In national terms, California is about as indelibly blue as the political process permits, but an unusually comprehensive exit poll of voters in Tuesday's presidential election confirms that Los Angeles is perhaps the bluest of the blue; it is now more liberal and Democratic than the state as a whole. . . .

CAIR 11/7
89% of Muslim Voters Picked Obama
The American Muslim Taskforce on Civil Rights and Elections (AMT) today released the results of a poll indicating that almost 90% of American Muslim voters picked Barack Obama in Tuesday's election. That survey of more than 600 American Muslim voters also indicated that just 2% of respondents cast their ballots for Sen. John McCain. . . .

Washington Post: Behind the Numbers
A Look at Cell-Only Voters  11/7
Exit polling is notable after Election Day primarily for its massive store of data on voters. Among the unexplored numbers so far this year is new information about those voters who have abandoned their home phones and gone "cell-only." . . .

New York Times 11/7
Obama Made Gains Among Younger Evangelical Voters
President-elect Barack Obama succeeded in chiseling off small but significant chunks of white evangelical voters who have been the foundation of the Republican Party for decades, a close look at voting patterns reveals. The change reflects a broader shift among religious voters in every category. . . .

Gallup 11/6
Blacks, Postgrads, Young Adults Help Obama Prevail
The final pre-election Gallup Poll Daily tracking survey of nearly 2,500 likely voters shows that Barack Obama won the 2008 presidential election with practically total support from black Americans, and heavy backing from those with postgraduate educations, young adults (male and female alike), and non-churchgoers. At least 6 in 10 voters in all of these categories cast their votes for Obama. . . .

Washington Post 11/6
Democrats Add Suburbs to Their Growing Coalition
After President Bush's reelection in 2004, top strategist Karl Rove proclaimed the arrival of a permanent Republican majority. Just four years later, the results from Sen. Barack Obama's definitive victory suggest that the opposite may be underway. . . .

Contra Costa Times 11/6
Pollsters wonder why Prop. 8 defied expectations
... "The bottom line is the public, the voters, are very closely divided on same-sex marriage today," said Mark Baldassare, president of the nonpartisan Public Policy Institute of California. "And when all was said and done, you just have to say the 'yes' side was just a little bit more persuasive than the 'no' side." . . .

AP/LAT 11/6
Obama results show narrowing of 'God gap'
In building a winning coalition of religious voters, Barack Obama cut into the so-called God gap that puts frequent worshippers in the Republican column, won Catholics, made inroads with younger evangelicals, and racked up huge numbers with minorities and people with no religious affiliation. . . .

Pew Research Center 11/5
Inside Obama's Sweeping Victory
Barack Obama captured the White House on the strength of a substantial electoral shift toward the Democratic Party and by winning a number of key groups in the middle of the electorate. . . .

ABC News 11/5
Storm of Voter Dissatisfaction Lifts Obama
Barack Obama rode a storm of voter dissatisfaction to his history-making victory, lifted to office as the first African-American president by the battered economy, a generational and partisan shift in political power and the resonance of his promise of change. . . .

Gallup 11/5
Obama's Road to the White House
Barack Obama's victory over John McCain in the 2008 presidential election concludes a race that was highly competitive for much of the year. . . .

CBS News 11/5
What Obama's Win Means
Barack Obama's decisive win over McCain signaled more than just the voters' preferred candidate; it offered valuable insights about the future of American politics. An analysis of the CBS exit polls reveals six key lessons from the 2008 presidential election. . . .

New York Times 11/5
Obama Built a Broad Coalition
Senator Barack Obama, the first African-American nominee for president, drew more support in Tuesday's election than any recent candidates of the Democratic Party among a broad range of demographic groups, including several that typically favor Republicans. . . .

ABC News 11/4
Consumer Confidence is Election-Day Worst Since '92
Consumer confidence is its Election-Day worst since 1992, only 3 points from its low in 22 years of weekly ABC News polls. ABC's Consumer Comfort Index stands at -48 on its scale of -100 to +100, very near its worst ever, -51 in May. The last time it languished this low for this long was after the 1990-91 recession, sealing George H.W. Bush's loss in 1992. . . .

Gallup 11/4
High Personal Investment in Election Outcome
A recent Gallup Poll finds 74% of Americans saying the outcome of this year's presidential election matters more to them than in previous years -- slightly more than said this about the 2004 election, and well above the figures from the 1996 and 2000 elections. . . .

Gallup 11/3
Obama vs. McCain, Change vs. Experience
As voters prepare to go to the polls on Nov. 4, a new Gallup Poll panel survey shows that Barack Obama voters say they are motivated to vote for their candidate because he would bring about change and provide a fresh approach to governing, while John McCain voters are supporting their candidate both because of his experience, and because they agree with his views on issues. . . .

ABC News 11/3
Obama Leads; Economy Makes the Difference
Barack Obama has ridden his theme of change to a clear advantage in the closing days of the 2008 presidential campaign, his lead in overall vote preference buttressed by his personal and policy ratings alike -- and above all his trust to handle the battered economy. . . .

Democracy Corps 11/3
Obama Lead Built on Expanding Advantage on Issues
The final national survey from Democracy Corps and Greenberg Quinlan Rosner shows Obama with a stable and decisive lead in the race for president. But there is much more going on that will likely produce an even bigger outcome. . . .

Washington Post: Jon Cohen 11/1
Our Polls Are on the Mark. I Think.
January, you may recall, was a rough month for the pollsters. All the polls showed Sen. Barack Obama poised to follow up his big win in the Iowa caucuses with a knockout blow to Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton in the New Hampshire primary. But he lost, sending the 13 firms that did public pre-election polls there scrambling for explanations. Could polling be similarly embarrassed this month, misjudging the last chapter of this epic presidential election? Thoughts of the Granite State jolt me and my fellow pollsters awake in the dead of night during these final days. . . .

AP 11/1
Obama backers gleeful, McCain's glum
That smiling guy walking down the street? Odds are he's a Barack Obama backer. The grouchy looking one? Don't ask, and don't necessarily count on him to vote next week, either. More John McCain supporters feel glum about the presidential campaign while more of Obama's are charged up over it, according to an Associated Press-Yahoo News poll released Saturday. . . .

GQRR 10/30
Stan Greenberg's Letter To Bill McInturff
Dear Bill: I very much enjoyed your spirited note on the state of the race and Barack Obama’s "ballot position." It reminds me how much I miss our times working together on the bipartisan polls for NPR and for many of our corporate clients. I miss in particular the banter before those meetings when your Republican colleagues fretted over their teenage children going off to Obama rallies. . . .

Bill McInturff (via Time.com) 10/29
State of the Race and Ballot Position
First, let's be clear: This is a hard election to "predict." The historic nature of the candidates on both tickets, the huge influx of unregulated money by the Obama campaign, the dour public mood, and the unique level of voter interest all suggest an historic level of turn-out, not witnessed in over 40 years. . . .

ABC News: The Numbers 10/29
Do You Know This Candidate?
Barack Obama and John McCain alike have made strides since June in acquainting likely voters with their positions. The difference: For Obama’s supporters, it looks much more likely to matter. . . .

Democracy Corps 10/29
Democrats Poised to Make Gains in Mountain West
Democrats are on the brink of making historic gains in swing Mountain West Congressional districts. Four years ago in these 11 targeted districts, Democratic presidential candidate John Kerry lost by 15 points and Democratic Congressional candidates lost by an average of 23 points. Now, however, a sea change has occurred as Obama is nearly tied with McCain (trailing by just thee points – 45 – 48 percent) and Democrats lead in the aggregate vote (50 – 45 percent in the named Congressional vote). . . .

Washington Post 10/29
Accuracy Of Polls a Question In Itself
Could the polls be wrong? Sen. John McCain and his allies say that they are. The country, they say, could be headed to a 2008 version of the famous 1948 upset election, with McCain in the role of Harry S. Truman and Sen. Barack Obama as Thomas E. Dewey, lulled into overconfidence by inaccurate polls. . . . Few analysts outside the McCain campaign appear to share this view. . . .

Los Angeles Times 10/29
Rethinking the 'Bradley effect'
It has entered political lore as the "Bradley effect" -- the supposed tendency of some white voters to lie when asked if they support a black candidate, producing a bubble of support that isn't really there. . . .

ABC News: The Numbers 10/28
Ready for 2012
For nearly one in 10 likely voters, it’s not a week from Election Day, it’s four years and a week. Their work in 2008 is done. Those are the 9 percent in the latest ABC News/Washington Post tracking poll who say they’ve already voted, either by early in-person voting or absentee ballot. Their preference: Barack Obama over John McCain, by 60-39 percent. . . .

New York Times: Sam Wang & Joshua Gold 10/28
Your Brain's Secret Ballot
As we enter the final week of a seemingly endless election campaign, opinion polls continue to identify a substantial fraction of voters who consider themselves "undecided." ... Comedians and other commentators have portrayed these people as fools, unable to choose even when confronted with the starkest of contrasts. Recent research in neuroscience and psychology, however, suggests that most undecided voters may be smarter than you think. . . .

Gallup 10/27
Late Upsets Are Rare, but Have Happened
There have been only 2 instances in the past 14 elections, from 1952 to 2004, when the presidential candidate ahead in Gallup polling a week or so before the election did not win the national popular vote: in 2000 (George W. Bush) and 1980 (Jimmy Carter). And in only one of these, in 1980, did the candidate who was behind (Ronald Reagan) pull ahead in both the popular vote and the Electoral College and thus win the election. . . .

New York Times 10/27
Rethinking the Notion of Political Dominance
... In 2004, after President Bush won re-election with expanded Republican majorities in Congress, academics, journalists and party strategists wondered whether his blend of free-market economics, cultural conservatism and hawkishness on national security might create long-lasting Republican rule. . . . Today that Republican dream appears in shambles. . . .

Washington Post 10/25
Perceptions of Palin Grow Increasingly Negative
While top-of-the-ticket rivals John McCain and Barack Obama both remain broadly popular heading into Election Day, public perceptions of Republican vice presidential nominee Sarah Palin have fallen dramatically since she emerged on the national political scene at the GOP convention. . . .

Salon: Paul Maslin 10/25
Obama's big lead in the polls is real
At the time of this writing, just past midnight in the opening minutes of Oct. 24 -- meaning a mere 11 days before the first votes in the 2008 presidential election will be cast in Dixville Notch, N.H. -- I am looking at the results of no fewer than 11 national polls. Barack Obama leads in every one. . . .

Greenberg Quinlan Rosner 10/24
NPR Poll: Commanding Obama lead in battlegrounds
With just over a week left before the election, Barack Obama's strategy of campaigning on a big battlefield may be paying off in a second wave election in a row, and in an entirely new electoral map both for the White House and all other offices. . . .

Democracy Corps 10/24
Survey of Republican Party supporters
With the country poised for its second wave election, Republican supporters are on a different page and disconnected from the rest of the country. That helps explain John McCain's implausible close to the campaign and perhaps foretells difficulties Republicans will face dealing with the aftermath. . . .

ABC News: The Numbers 10/24
The Ground War Rages
Three in 10 likely voters say they've been contacted by phone, e-mail or in person by Barack Obama's campaign, rising to four in 10 in the battleground states – in both cases an advantage for Obama over John McCain in the ground game. . . .

New York Times 10/24
Obama Gaining Among Bush Voters
Senator Barack Obama is showing surprising strength among portions of the political coalition that returned George W. Bush to the White House four years ago, a cross section of support that, if it continues through Election Day, would exceed that of Bill Clinton in 1992, according to the latest New York Times/CBS News polls. . . .

Gallup 10/24
Obama Winning Over the Jewish Vote
Jewish voters nationwide have grown increasingly comfortable with voting for Barack Obama for president since the Illinois senator secured the Democratic nomination in June. They now favor Obama over John McCain by more than 3 to 1, 74% to 22%. . . .

Pew Research Center 10/24
Liberal Dems Top Conservative Reps in Activism
With less than two weeks to go before Election Day, voters remain riveted to the presidential campaign. But liberal Democrats are leading the way by engaging in far more activism than other partisan and ideological groups. . . .

NPR 10/23
McCain Lost Key Rural Support In Early October
Republican John McCain was doing so poorly among a key voter group during the first three weeks of October, it seemed unlikely he could capture the presidency. . . . Rural voters were instrumental in the election and re-election of President Bush, and big Republican margins in rural areas are considered critical to a John McCain victory next month. . . .

GQRR/Religion & Ethics NewsWeekly/UN Foundation 10/22
Religion and America's Role in the World
Since 9/11, America's role in the world has taken on an increasingly important part of our political discourse. . . . In this first major study of religion and international affairs, we explore the role that religious worldviews play in shaping views about America’s role in the world and foreign policy priorities. . . .

ABC News 10/21
The Economy... and those Clinton Democrats
Two factors that weren't fully anticipated early this summer are boosting Barack Obama in the presidential race. One, most powerfully, is the economy; another – surprise – are Clinton Democrats. . . .

Wilson Quarterly: Scott Keeter 10/21
Poll Power
... As the votes were counted on the night of this past January's New Hampshire Democratic presidential New Hampshire gave new life to many nagging doubts about polling and criticisms of its role in American politics. . . . At a deeper level, the unease about polling grows out of fears about its impact on democracy. . . .

New York Times 10/21
Obama Appeal Rises in Poll; No Gains for McCain Ticket
As voters have gotten to know Senator Barack Obama, they have warmed up to him, with more than half, 53 percent, now saying they have a favorable impression of him and 33 percent saying they have an unfavorable view. But as voters have gotten to know Senator John McCain, they have not warmed, with only 36 percent of voters saying they view him favorably while 45 percent view him unfavorably. . . .

Washington Post 10/20
Democrats See Opportunity In Outer Suburbs' Troubles
For all the emphasis on Sen. Barack Obama's chances with working-class voters in declining Rust Belt cities, the biggest swing vote in the presidential election is likely to be in outer suburban communities, where Democrats hope to capitalize on economic unease and demographic shifts to overturn traditional Republican strengths. . . .

ABC News: The Numbers 10/19
The Powell Endorsement
Endorsements tend to reinforce predispositions rather than change them. Nonetheless Colin Powell's is unusual, in that it both crosses the aisle and comes from a particularly well-liked quasi-political figure -- one, as a bonus, who's steeped in the military experience Barack Obama lacks. . . .

ABC News 10/19
Debate Scores: McCain Improves, Obama Takes Prize
John McCain improved his debate scores in his final encounter with Barack Obama, but not enough to challenge Obama's dominance across their three meetings -- an advantage that's improved Obama's image well beyond his core supporters. . . .

PBS: Now 10/18
Prejudice, Polling, and the Election
In the 1982 California gubernatorial election, Democratic candidate Tom Bradley lost to the Republican candidate George Deukmejian, even though several public polls showed Bradley with a clear lead. This led to speculation that voters purposely misrepresented themselves and their biases against an African American candidate, such as Bradley, leading to wildly inaccurate poll results. . . .

AP/Yahoo 10/17
Voters souring on McCain, Obama stays steady
When it comes to the public's image of John McCain, it's as if somebody dialed the electricity down in the past month. For Barack Obama, the juice is still flowing. People's regard for the Republican presidential nominee has deteriorated across-the-board since September, an Associated Press-Yahoo! News poll showed Friday, with McCain losing ground in how favorably he's seen and in a long list of personal qualities voters seek in White House contenders. . . .

Gallup 10/17
Surprising Decline in Economic Pessimism
Consumer pessimism, although still overwhelmingly high, has declined somewhat in the past several days -- particularly in terms of future economic expectations, with 83% of Americans saying economic conditions are "getting worse" -- down 7 points from last week and only 2 points worse than a month ago. . . .

Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research 10/17
Marriage Gap Drives Obama Margin
In national surveys, Obama now leads McCain by up to 10 points and has built support among Independents, older voters and other swing voters. But his margin among unmarried women -- the largest demographic base group at 26 percent of the voting age population -- anchors his margin. . . .

National Journal 10/17
The Hidden History Of The American Electorate
With anxiety over the nation's direction approaching hurricane force, the 2008 election could blow away many of America's familiar political landmarks. The collapse of public faith in Washington and the meltdown on Wall Street are generating gales of discontent that could reconfigure each party's electoral coalition and reorder long-standing patterns of support. . . .

Washington Post: Behind the Numbers 10/17
Obama v. Bush on "Experience"
Today GOP strategist Karl Rove highlights a continued weak point for Barack Obama - that 45 percent of registered voters in the latest Washington Post-ABC News poll doubt the Illinois senator's readiness to be president. But Rove exaggerates the extent of public doubts about Obama's experience compared with George W. Bush's in 2000. . . .

Star Tribune 10/16
Judge rules in favor of exit polling in Minnesota
Exit pollsters have a right to do their work within 100 feet of Minnesota polling places, a federal judge ruled Wednesday. U.S. Chief Judge Michael Davis called the state's new exit poll law unconstitutional and issued a preliminary injunction allowing ABC, NBC, CBS, Fox News, CNN and the Associated Press to conduct polls close to voting places Nov. 4. . . .

UVA: Crystal Ball 10/16
Democrats roll in U.S. House races
The good news just keeps on coming for Democrats. . . we believe that Democrats have a solid chance to add 15 to 20 more House seats to their total, putting the party's seat share at 251 to 256 of 435 members (up to 59% of the total House) -- the party's highest share since the first two years of the Clinton Administration (1993-1995). . . .

Gallup 10/16
Obama Surge Evident Among Men, Less Educated
In the week after the Republican National Convention, John McCain led Barack Obama 47% to 45% among registered voters nationwide. Then the financial crisis emerged as a major issue, and Obama quickly took the lead. . . . With only a few exceptions, most voter subgroups have shifted in Obama's direction since mid-September, about the time that the economic crisis came to dominate the news headlines. . . .

Democracy Corps 10/16
McCain Digs Himself a Deeper Hole
John McCain entered tonight's debate needing to halt Barack Obama's momentum and fundamentally change the dynamic of the race. Not only did he fail to achieve this goal, McCain dug himself an even deeper hole. . . .

CBS News 10/16
Uncommitted Voters Say Obama Won Final Debate
As in the previous debates, CBS News and Knowledge Networks have conducted a nationally representative poll of uncommitted voters to get their immediate reaction to tonight's presidential debate. In the first presidential debate, second presidential debate and vice presidential debate, more uncommitted voters said the Democratic candidate was the victor. And tonight's results have, by a wide margin, made it a clean sweep. . . .

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