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ABC News: The Numbers 10/15
Dissecting the "Bradley Effect"
Barack Obama's lead over John McCain has reignited debate about the alleged "Bradley effect" -- the notion that, in polls, white people lie about voting for a black candidate. It remains, at best, what I called it nine months ago: a theory in search of data. . . .

Gallup 10/15
Previewing the Final Presidential Debate
... A review of recent Gallup polling suggests that while Barack Obama leads McCain on the ballot and has clear strengths on key dimensions such as the economy, McCain himself is not without his own strengths, which he could in theory build on in the debate. . . .

New York Times 10/15
Poll Says Attacks Backfire on McCain
The McCain campaign's recent angry tone and sharply personal attacks on Senator Barack Obama appear to have backfired and tarnished Senator John McCain more than their intended target, the latest New York Times/CBS News poll has found. . . .

Los Angeles Times 10/15
Worry about economy helps Obama widen gap
With fear about the economy driving voters his way, Barack Obama has broadened his lead over John McCain and strengthened his hold on key groups both presidential candidates are courting, a Los Angeles Times/Bloomberg poll has found. . . .

CBS News: Poll Positions 10/14
Time To Move Beyond "The Bradley Effect?"
Sometimes I feel like a broken record. Despite all the claims that Americans have moved beyond race, we still want to talk about race! . . .

New York Magazine 10/14
The Spreadsheet Psychic
Nate Silver is a number-crunching prodigy who went from correctly forecasting baseball games to correctly forecasting presidential primaries—and perhaps the election itself. Here's how he built a better crystal ball. . . .

Washington Post: Behind the Numbers 10/13
In the Margins: Three Weeks to Go
Barack Obama enters the final three weeks of the presidential campaign with the wind at his back. In the latest Washington Post-ABC News poll, Obama's favorability has climbed and the proportion who view him as a safe choice is on the rise, while positive views of McCain have dropped and fewer than three in 10 said he understands the economic problems Americans are having. And the vote margins are changing as a result. . . .

Democracy Corps 10/13
Congressional battleground tilts further against GOP
The latest congressional battleground survey of 2,460 likely voters by Democracy Corps and Greenberg Quinlan Rosner, part of our ongoing weekly tracking of the most competitive House races, finds that the nation's deepening financial crisis is taking its toll, not on incumbents, but specifically on Republicans, resulting in a significant shift in the electoral playing field in the Democrats' favor. . . .

Washington Post 10/13
Obama Up by 10, as McCain Favorability Ratings Fall
With just over three weeks until Election Day, the two presidential nominees appear to be on opposite trajectories, with Sen. Barack Obama gaining momentum and Sen. John McCain stalled or losing ground on a range of issues and personal traits, according to a new Washington Post-ABC News poll. . . .

Washington Post 10/13
Does Your Subconscious Think Obama Is Foreign?
A few years ago, psychologists Mahzarin Banaji and Thierry Devos showed the names of a number of celebrities to a group of volunteers and asked them to classify the well-known personalities as American or non-American. . . .

ABC News: The Numbers 10/12
Attack Blowback
The McCain campaign's more aggressive tone is prompting pushback from the public: Registered voters by a broad margin now believe John McCain is more focused on attacking his opponent than on addressing the issues in the 2008 presidential election. . . .

Washington Post 10/12
Pollsters Debate 'Bradley Effect'
Not long ago, it was considered political gospel: Be wary of polls when an election involves an African American candidate, because many whites will voice support but then vote for the white opponent. Now, poll-watchers are asking whether that could be skewing the numbers as Democrat Barack Obama, the first African American presidential nominee, moves ahead of Republican John McCain. . . .

New York Times 10/12
Do Polls Lie About Race?
THREE weeks to Election Day and polls project a victory, possibly a big one, for Barack Obama. Yet everywhere, anxious Democrats wring their hands. They've seen this Lucy-and-the-football routine before, and they're just waiting for their ball to be snatched away, the foiled Charlie Browns again. Remember how the exit polls in 2004 predicted President Kerry? . . .

ABC News: The Numbers 10/10
Of Markets and Marriages
In the past the public has reacted with fortitude to steep declines in the stock market. There are several reasons. . . .

Democracy Corps 10/10
And it's not just TV
As reports emerge of Barack Obama far outspending John McCain’s campaign in key battleground states, Democracy Corps and Greenberg Quinlan Rosner's survey in the presidential battleground states shows Obama's campaign is dominating in every medium -- from television to traditional campaign methods, like canvassing and phone, to modern techniques, like viral videos and emails. . . .

Scripps Howard 10/10
94% have heard way-out Obama, McCain rumors
Ninety-four percent of adult Americans have heard at least one of the ridiculous and false rumors chasing John McCain and Barack Obama on the campaign trail, according to a Scripps poll. . . .

UVA: Larry J. Sabato 10/9
Is the electoral dam breaking for Obama?
All season, political observers have been speculating when, if ever, the Electoral College and the state and national polls would reflect the basic pro-Democratic fundamentals of the presidential election year. Those fundamentals, historic true-blues (pun intended in this case), include presidential popularity (the Republican incumbent is at rock-bottom), a horribly weak economy, and a disliked foreign war. All point to a sizeable Democratic victory. . . .

New York Times 10/9
G.O.P. Facing Tougher Battle for Congress
The economic upheaval is threatening to topple Republican Congressional candidates, putting more Senate and House seats within Democratic reach less than a month before the elections, lawmakers and campaign strategists say. . . .

Democracy Corps 10/8
Obama Expands Lead in Battleground States
With less than 4 weeks until Election Day, a new poll from Democracy Corps in the 16 battleground states that will decide the Electoral College shows important improvement for Barack Obama. . . .

CBS News 10/8
Uncommitted Voters Say Obama Won Debate
CBS News and Knowledge Networks have, once again, conducted a nationally representative poll of uncommitted voters to get their immediate reaction to tonight's presidential debate. And this new poll has good news for the Democratic ticket: Just as in the first presidential debate and the vice presidential face off, more uncommitted voters say the Democratic candidate won the debate. . . .

Democracy Corps 10/8
Undecided Voters Move Decisively Toward Obama
Barack Obama once again won tonight's debate, and undecided voters are prepared to move toward his candidacy, according to Democracy Corps research conducted around tonight's second presidential debate. . . .

CNN 10/8
Obama won the night
A national poll of debate watchers suggests that Barack Obama won the second presidential debate. Fifty-four percent of those questioned in a CNN/Opinion Research Corporation survey conducted after the debate ended said that Obama did the best job in the debate, with 30 percent saying John McCain performed better. . . .

Democracy Corps 10/7
Democrats Lead in GOP-held Congressional Seats
The new Democracy Corps and Greenberg Quinlan Rosner survey of the most competitive Republican-held battleground districts finds Democrats maintaining their surprise lead as the mood of the nation continues to sour. . . .

Washington Post 10/7
Obama Leading In Ohio
Aided by the faltering economy, Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama has the upper hand in the race for Ohio, according to a new Washington Post-ABC News poll, putting Republican John McCain at a disadvantage in a state considered vital to his chances of winning the White House in November. . . .

Reader's Digest 10/7
How the World Sees the 2008 Election
It's a good thing for John McCain that only American citizens can vote in U.S. presidential elections. If the election were held overseas, or even in the rest of North America, the Republican nominee wouldn't stand a chance. This was just one of the remarkable findings in a new Reader's Digest Global Poll in which we asked people in 17 countries, including the United States, to name the issues they care about most and tell how they feel about the United States and the presidential contenders. . . .

USA Today 10/6
Young voters hint at electorate shift
Some voters under 30 are conservatives. An equal number are liberals. But a striking majority of the Millennial generation agrees on one thing: who should be the next president. A USA TODAY/MTV/Gallup Poll of registered voters 18 to 29 years old shows Democrat Barack Obama leading Republican John McCain by 61%-32%, the most lopsided contest within an age group in any presidential election in modern times. . . .

New York Times: Michael A. Cohen 10/6
Does Race Really Matter?
... With the first ever African-American presidential candidate, race is certainly the great unknown of the 2008 campaign, but there is significant empirical evidence to suggest that Mr. Obama's skin color may be far less consequential than some believe -- and may even benefit him. . . .

Washington Post 10/6
Registration Gains Favor Democrats
As the deadline for voter registration arrives today in many states, Sen. Barack Obama's campaign is poised to benefit from a wave of newcomers to the rolls in key states in numbers that far outweigh any gains made by Republicans. . .

Washington Post 10/6
Nebraska Becomes Unlikely Battleground
With a month to go before Election Day, Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin, the Republican vice presidential nominee, touched down here Sunday for an unexpected rally in a state that President Bush won by 22 percentage points in 2004. In early September, even as it was shifting resources out of other traditionally Republican states to key electoral battlegrounds, Sen. Barack Obama's campaign sent 15 paid staffers to Nebraska, a state that has backed a Democrat for president just once since 1936. . . . Both camps have their eyes on the same reward: a single electoral vote that could prove pivotal in determining the next president. . . .

Los Angeles Times 10/5
Frank talk of Obama and race in Virginia
The isolated towns of Virginia's Appalachian coal region are home to strong labor unions and Democratic political machines that date back generations. Yet voters here who eagerly pushed Democrats into the Senate and the governor's office are resisting Barack Obama. . . .

New York Times 10/5
Economic Unrest Shifts Electoral Battlegrounds
The turmoil on Wall Street and the weakening economy are changing the contours of the presidential campaign map, giving new force to Senator Barack Obama's ambitious strategy to make incursions into Republican territory, while leading Senator John McCain to scale back his efforts to capture Democratic states. . . .

MSNBC 10/4
How will MO blue-collar voters break?
... In 2000 and 2004, Bush won Missouri -- a state that has predicted the president in all but one election since 1950. But recent public polling indicates Obama has moved into a virtual tie in the Show-Me State. For Obama to win it, though, he is going to have to "show" something to those blue-collar Bush voters, some of whom appear open to voting for him. A focus group of working-class Missouri voters conducted yesterday by pollster Peter Hart (the Democratic part of the NBC/Wall Street Journal poll) was evidence of that. . . .

Democracy Corps 10/3
Impact of Rescue Package in GOP Battleground Districts
With the House of Representatives joining the Senate today in passing the financial rescue package, Democracy Corps is releasing new research showing that voters are conflicted about the proposal. This is a difficult issue, particularly for members who support the bill and are worried about its electoral implications. . . .

CBS News 10/3
Uncommitted Voters Say Biden Won
Uncommitted voters who watched the vice presidential debate thought Democratic vice presidential nominee Joe Biden did the best job by a margin of more than two to one, according to a CBS News/Knowledge Networks poll taken immediately following the debate. However, there was good news in the poll for Republican vice presidential nominee Sarah Palin as well. . . .

CNN 10/3
Debate poll says Biden won, Palin beat expectations
A national poll of people who watched the vice presidential debate Thursday night suggests that Democratic Sen. Joe Biden won, but also says Republican Gov. Sarah Palin exceeded expectations. . . .

ABC News 10/2
Sarah Palin Boom Busts
Skepticism about Sarah Palin has soared since she entered the national political stage, with six in 10 Americans now doubting her qualifications for office and fewer than half convinced of her grasp of complex issues. In advance of her debate against Joe Biden on Thursday, Palin now looks more like a drag than a boost to the GOP ticket . . . .

CBS News 10/2
What Do Polls Mean Come Election Day?
National polls, including CBS News Polls, can measure the preference of voters nationwide. But the winner in a presidential election is decided by electoral votes accumulated state-by-state. CBS News has partnered with YouGov/Polimetrix to model how shifts in the national horserace numbers would most likely affect the overall electoral vote outcome. . . .

UVA: Rhodes Cook 10/2
Democrats winning registration wars
The presidential debate season is just underway. The polls are in flux. The issue agenda--which has already shifted in the last month from the Sarah Palin effect to "lipstick on a pig" to the nation's worst economic crisis since the Depression--may shift again before Election Day. But one important factor has remained constant: the Democrats' clear-cut advantage in the ongoing voter registration wars. . . .

Wall Street Journal 10/1
New Voters Like Obama, But May Not Show up at Polls
This year's flood of newly registered voters heavily favor Sen. Barack Obama in the presidential contest, but they won't necessarily show up to support him on Election Day, a new survey indicates. . . .

Washington Post 10/1
Voters Fear Failure of Bailout Bill Could Deepen Crisis
Voters are deeply divided over the terms of the government's $700 billion economic rescue package, but overwhelmingly fear the House's rejection of the measure on Monday could deepen the country's financial woes, according to the latest Washington Post-ABC News poll. . . .

PBS 9/30
Young white evangelicals less supportive McCain
A recent survey conducted for Religion & Ethics NewsWeekly finds that young white evangelical Christians are less supportive of John McCain for president than their older counterparts. Although McCain maintains a solid winning margin among white evangelical Christians on the ballot, white evangelicals ages 18-29 are less supportive of his candidacy and express less favorable impressions of McCain than older white evangelical Christians. . . .

Los Angeles Times 9/30
In Nevada, Democrats are on a roll
By just about any measure, now is a fine time to be a Democrat in Nevada. Barack Obama has built one of the most formidable political operations the state has ever seen. Party registration is soaring. The Republican governor, Jim Gibbons, may be the most unpopular state executive in the country. . . .

Democracy Corps 9/29
GOP at Edge of Even Bigger Congressional Losses
The latest Democracy Corps and Greenberg Quinlan Rosner survey of the competitive battleground districts reveals an intensely angry electorate, even more sour on Republicans who have not distanced themselves enough from Bush and are now at risk even at the edge of the current map of competitive congressional seats. . . .

Hofstra University 9/29
Suburban Voters
America's suburban voters regard the economy as the most important issue in the 2008 presidential campaign and report overwhelmingly that they or someone they know has been affected by high energy prices and job and benefit cuts, according to the nation's only 2008 presidential poll to focus exclusively on suburban voters. . . .

Los Angeles Times: Douglas E. Schoen 9/29
The power of the other candidates
The presidential election could well turn on a factor that has gotten virtually no discussion this year -- the votes drawn by Libertarian Bob Barr, Green Cynthia McKinney and independent Ralph Nader. . . .

Washington Post 9/29
My Team vs. Your Team
With America divided right down the middle for the third presidential election in a row, most people would not be surprised to hear that Democratic and Republican partisans perceive a widening gap between their presidential choices. . . . "Party identification is part of your social identity, in the same way you relate to your religion or ethnic group or baseball team," said Gary C. Jacobson, a political scientist at the University of California at San Diego. . . .

Los Angeles Times 9/28
Obama slightly widens lead after debate
The much-anticipated first presidential debate between John McCain and Barack Obama on Friday appears to have helped Obama slightly widen a lead over his Republican opponent, a post-debate Los Angeles Times/Bloomberg survey shows. . . .

Democracy Corps 9/27
Obama Makes Personal and National Security Gains
With Barack Obama gaining momentum, John McCain needed to change the dynamic in the race during tonight's debate and to shift the focus of the campaign onto friendlier terrain. Instead, Democracy Corps research finds that McCain essentially held his ground in this debate, while Obama emerged with higher personal favorability and increased confidence in his ability to handle critical foreign policy and national security issues. . . .

CBS News 9/27
Obama Boosted Most By Debate
The first presidential debate helped uncommitted voters learn about the candidates - and it appears that Democrat Barack Obama benefited the most, according to a CBS News/Knowledge Networks poll taken immediately following the debate. . . .

CNN 9/27
Round 1 in debates goes to Obama, poll says
A national poll of people who watched the first presidential debate suggests that Barack Obama came out on top, but there was overwhelming agreement that both Obama and John McCain would be able to handle the job of president if elected. . . .

ABC News: The Numbers 9/26
Do Debates Matter?
The presidential debates are scheduled to start tonight, inevitably portrayed as potentially decisive. Is it so? Do debates change things? Directly and measurably, generally not. But indirectly or more subtly, likely so. And there are plenty of reasons to think that this year’s campaign could be especially sensitive to the candidates’ debate performances. . . .

Democracy Corps 9/26
Obama Gains in Macomb, is Ahead in Michigan
Entering the first debate of the presidential contest, Barack Obama has significantly improved his standing in one of the key bellwether counties in the country -- Macomb County, Michigan. . . .

New York Times 9/26
McCain Still Favored on Foreign Policy
Heading into the first scheduled presidential debate, Senator John McCain is seen by voters as more capable on national security and more knowledgeable about foreign policy, the focus of the debate, than is Senator Barack Obama, according to the latest New York Times/CBS News poll. But discussion at the debate is sure to turn to the pressing problems posed by the faltering economy and on that score, Mr. Obama outpaces Mr. McCain. . . .

Gallup 9/25
Presidential Debates Rarely Game-Changers
Gallup election polling trends since the advent of televised presidential debates a nearly a half-century ago reveal few instances in which the debates may have had a substantive impact on election outcomes. The two exceptions are 1960 and 2000, both very close elections in which even small changes could have determined who won. . . .

Pew Research Center 9/25
McCain's Image Falls as Economic Worries Rise
Views of John McCain turned somewhat more negative last week, amid record public interest in economic news. In a survey conducted Sept. 19-22, fully half of the public said their opinion of the GOP nominee had changed in the past few days, with 30% saying their opinion has become less favorable and only 20% saying their view has become more favorable. . . .

Pew Research Center 9/25
Declining Public Support for Global Engagement
The public is feeling much better about how the war in Iraq is going these days, but at the same time has a sharply diminished appetite for U.S. efforts to deal with an array of global problems. . . .

Washington Post 9/24
Economic Fears Give Obama Clear Lead
Turmoil in the financial industry and growing pessimism about the economy have altered the shape of the presidential race, giving Democratic nominee Barack Obama the first clear lead of the general-election campaign over Republican John McCain, according to the latest Washington Post-ABC News national poll. . . .

Rock the Vote 9/23
Young Voters' Election Energy Intensifies
Rock the Vote's latest poll of 18-29 year olds shows young voters are increasingly engaged in the upcoming presidential election, driven by concerns over the faltering economy and a sense that our country needs a new direction. Concern over the economy, while a top issue for young people since 2006, has intensified and is now the number one issue this election for nearly half (41%) of 18-29 year olds. . . .

ABC News 9/23
Blacks' Political Engagement Spikes
Barack Obama's candidacy for president both underscores sharp racial divides in this country and offers avenues for progress: Political engagement by blacks is up sharply, Americans across racial lines think the 2008 campaign will change blacks' self-image for the better and most see Obama's nomination as a sign of broader racial progress. . . .

Chicago Council on Global Affairs (pdf) 9/22
Americans Support Major Foreign Policy Changes
A new poll of the American public by The Chicago Council on Global Affairs shows overwhelming bipartisan concern about America's standing in the world and support for new policy directions, including talking to enemies, setting a timetable to withdraw from Iraq, making a deal with Iran, using force to strike leaders of terrorist groups operating in Pakistan, working more through international institutions, and participating in a new climate-change treaty. . . .

Center for Rural Strategies 9/22
McCain leads in rural battleground
Republican John McCain leads Democrat Barack Obama by 10 points among rural voters in battleground states, according to a poll released Sept. 22, 2008, by the Center for Rural Strategies on behalf of the National Rural Assembly. Among likely voters in rural parts of 13 swing states, 51 percent favored McCain while 41 percent supported Obama. . . .

Associated Press 9/21
Racial views steer some white Dems away from Obama
Deep-seated racial misgivings could cost Barack Obama the White House if the election is close, according to an AP-Yahoo News poll that found one-third of white Democrats harbor negative views toward blacks -- many calling them "lazy," "violent," responsible for their own troubles. . . .

CBS News: Poll Positions 9/20
Does Race Skew Polling?
In every election, people make claims about polls - what they mean, what their weaknesses might be this time around, what the poll consumer needs to be aware of. But not all of those claims are true, including some that figure in many current political discussions. Some claims about possible polling errors even contradict each other! . . .

ABC News: The Numbers 9/19
Cell-Onlies: Report on a Test
Including cell-phone only respondents in a political poll produces a negligible impact on overall results. An ABC News/Washington Post poll done to test the approach found slight changes at most when cell-only respondents were included with a traditional land-line telephone sample. . . .

Pew Hispanic Center (pdf) 9/19
Hispanics See Their Situation in U.S. Deteriorating
Half (50%) of all Latinos say that the situation of Latinos in this country is worse now than it was a year ago, according to a new nationwide survey of 2,015 Hispanic adults conducted by the Pew Hispanic Center. This pessimism is especially prevalent among immigrants, who account for 54% of all Hispanic adults in the United States. . . .

Pew Research Center 9/18
Presidential Race Remains Even
... Although bottom-line voter attitudes have changed little since early August, the new survey finds that McCain has made considerably more progress than has his opponent in changing fundamental attitudes toward his candidacy. Yet the race remains close largely because Obama continues to be seen as the candidate of change, and voters remain divided over whether McCain would govern differently than President Bush. . . .

New York Times 9/18
McCain, in Tight Race, Is Still Tied to Bush
Despite an intense effort to distance himself from the way his party has done business in Washington, Senator John McCain is seen by voters as far less likely to bring change to Washington than Senator Barack Obama. Mr. McCain is widely viewed as a "typical Republican" who would continue or expand President Bush’s policies, according to the latest New York Times/CBS News Poll. . . .

Pew Global Attitudes Project 9/18
Unfavorable Views of Jews, Muslims Up in Europe
Ethnocentric attitudes are on the rise in Europe. Growing numbers of people in several major European countries say they have an unfavorable opinion of Jews, and opinions of Muslims also are more negative than they were several years ago. . . .

Gallup 9/17
Shifts in Last Two Months of Election Not Uncommon
A question of keen interest to election observers is the following: To what degree do presidential elections change between the end of the political conventions and Election Day? . . .

New York Times: Mark Mellman 9/17
Another Country
VOTERS not only express a desire for change in the coming election, they themselves have changed, and their shifting values are likely to alter the course of future policy debates. . . .

ABC News: The Numbers 9/16
Game On: Here Come the Votes
Pennsylvanians serving in the military may have completed the task already. Kentuckians and North Carolinians can start any time now. And in the next week or so people in up to a dozen more states can go ahead and be done with it. Voting for president, that is. . . .

ABC News: The Numbers 9/15
Economic Discontent: The Brass Ring
Today's turmoil on Wall Street underscores the brass ring of the presidential election – the American public's deep economic discontent. The candidate who seizes it very likely wins. Yet both are still grasping. . . .

New York Times 9/15
Both Sides Seeking to Be What Women Want
For evidence of how intensely the presidential candidates are battling over women, consider their investment in Oprah Winfrey. After the news programs, "Oprah" is the chief recipient of campaign advertisements this year, with Senator John McCain buying more commercial spots on the program in the last month than Senator Barack Obama — even though Ms. Winfrey herself is backing Mr. Obama. . . .

Washington Post 9/15
The Power of Political Misinformation
... [A] series of new experiments show that misinformation can exercise a ghostly influence on people's minds after it has been debunked -- even among people who recognize it as misinformation. In some cases, correcting misinformation serves to increase the power of bad information. . . .

Washington Post 9/15
Familiar Ground May Be Election's Deciding Factor
When the general election began a few months ago, Barack Obama's advisers talked optimistically about dramatically redrawing the electoral map. Their optimism remains, but as the campaign heads into its final 50 days, strategists for both parties say the election is likely to be decided on mostly familiar ground. . . .

McClatchy 9/12
Biden seen as more qualified than Palin
John McCain and Barack Obama head into the fall campaign neck and neck, despite questions in many voters' minds about whether McCain's running mate is as qualified as Obama's, according to a new Ipsos/McClatchy poll. . . .

CBS News: Poll Positions 9/11
What Does A Woman Bring To A Ticket?
Twenty-four years ago, when Walter Mondale selected Representative Geraldine Ferraro to be his running mate, he was running far behind Ronald Reagan in the polls. His choice was in part a response to demands by women's groups to put a woman on the Democratic ballot. . . .

UVA: Rhodes Cook 9/11
Obama's New Look at the Map
This is the time of the presidential campaign for "game-changing" moments, whether it is a huge outdoor acceptance speech in the shadow of the Rocky Mountains or the vice presidential selection of a largely unknown young female governor from Alaska. It is a potentially pivotal time in an historic election. But what the campaign of Barack Obama is ultimately looking for is a "map changer," a path to an Electoral College majority that they hope will take them through plenty of Republican terrain. . . .

Gallup 9/11
GOP Increase in Party ID After Convention Not Unusual
The percentage of Americans identifying themselves as Republicans has increased from 26% immediately before last week's Republican National Convention began to 30% immediately after it. That increase, combined with a slight 2-point drop in Democratic identification from 37% to 35%, has reduced the Democrats' formidable advantage in national party identification from 11 points to 5. . . .

CBS News 9/11
Most Say U.S. Prepared For Attacks
As the nation marks the seventh anniversary of 9/11, most Americans believe the U.S. is adequately prepared to deal with another terrorist attack against the country, according to a new CBS News poll. . . .

WorldPublicOpinion 9/11
Int'l Poll: No Consensus On Who Was Behind 9/11
A new WorldPublicOpinion.org poll of 17 nations finds that majorities in only nine of them believe that al Qaeda was behind the 9/11 terrorist attacks on the United States. In no country does a majority agree on another possible perpetrator, but in most countries significant minorities cite the US government itself and, in a few countries, Israel. . . .

ABC News: The Numbers 9/10
Tax Impact
There are some interesting nuggets on taxes in our latest ABC/Post poll: Registered voters by a 17-point margin are more apt to think their taxes would rise under Barack Obama than under John McCain, a perception that cuts closely to vote preference. So why are they even overall? Because Obama makes it back among those who see a positive or neutral tax impact. . . .

CNN 9/10
Race a dead heat in key states
New state polls indicate that the race for the White House remains a dead heat in four crucial battleground states that could determine the outcome of the election. CNN/Time Magazine/Opinion Research Corporation polls for Michigan, Missouri, New Hampshire and Virginia out Wednesday suggest the race between Senators Barack Obama and John McCain is statistically tied. . . .

WorldPublicOpinion 9/10
All Countries in BBC Poll Prefer Obama to McCain
All 22 countries in a BBC World Service poll would prefer Democratic nominee Barack Obama elected US president instead of his Republican rival John McCain. Obama is preferred by a four to one margin on average across the 22,000 people polled. . . .

Los Angeles Times 9/10
Palin bounce has Democrats off balance
The emergence of Sarah Palin as a political force in the presidential race has left many top Democrats fretting that, just two weeks after their convention ended on an emotional high, Barack Obama's campaign has suddenly lost its stride. . . .

CBS News 9/10
Uncommitted Voters Move To McCain
About a third of the voters who were uncommitted to either Democratic presidential nominee Sen. Barack Obama or Republican rival Sen. John McCain one month ago have now made up their minds, and more have settled on the Republican ticket than the Democratic one, a new CBS News poll finds. . . .

ABC News: The Numbers 9/9
White Women and Movability
A good follow-up question to our latest poll's finding on white women is whether they’ve been more changeable overall in their vote preferences in this year of the historic Clinton and Palin candidates. The answer: Yep. . . .

Annenberg Public Policy Center 9/9
Ready to elect a president who is a woman?
After Senator John McCain chose Alaska Governor Sarah Palin as his running mate on Friday, August 29, 2008, self-identified Republicans and Independents are significantly more likely to think that the United States is ready to elect a president who is a woman, according to the National Annenberg Election Survey. . . .

Washington Post 9/9
McCain Closes the Gap With Obama
Sen. John McCain has wiped away many of Sen. Barack Obama's pre-convention advantages, and the race for the White House is now basically deadlocked at 47 percent for Obama and 46 percent for McCain among registered voters, according to a new Washington Post-ABC News poll. The presidential contest is also about even among those who are the most likely to vote in November: 49 percent for McCain, 47 percent for Obama. . . .

CBS News 9/8
McCain Takes Post-Convention Lead
Republican presidential nominee John McCain leads Democratic rival Barack Obama 46 percent to 44 percent in the latest CBS News poll, which was taken in the three days following the completion of the parties' nominating conventions. . . . In this survey, CBS News re-interviewed respondents to a CBS News/New York Times poll taken in mid-August. . . .

USA Today 9/8
Convention lifts McCain over Obama
The Republican National Convention has given John McCain and his party a significant boost, a USA TODAY/Gallup Poll taken over the weekend shows, as running mate Sarah Palin helps close an "enthusiasm gap" that has dogged the GOP all year. . . .

Wall Street Journal: Alan Brinkley 9/7
The Party's Over
One of the conundrums of this political year is why, at a moment when Democrats are clearly preferred over Republicans, the presidential race remains so close. But for the past 40 years, close and unpredictable elections have increasingly become the norm. The most important reason for our volatile presidential elections is a fundamental change in American politics -- the birth of a post-partisan world. . . .

Washington Post: Rick Shenkman 9/6
About Those Civic-Minded, Deeply Informed Voters
One thing both Democrats and Republicans agreed about in their vastly different conventions: The American voter will not only decide but decide wisely. But does the electorate really know what it's talking about? . . .

Washington Post 9/6
Partisanship Appears to Sway Opinions on Palin
Republicans and Democrats have deeply contrasting first impressions of Republican vice presidential nominee Sarah Palin, suggesting partisanship, not gender, is paramount in the initial public reviews. Overall, Palin, the governor of Alaska and the first woman to run on a Republican presidential ticket, gets positive marks in a new ABC News national poll, despite broad skepticism that she has the necessary experience to serve as president. Most Americans approve of her selection, and six in 10 of those polled said she made the right call to join the contest. . . .

GQRR / Third Way (pdf) 9/5
Winning on National Security
In 2008, Democrats have an opportunity to achieve a major and lasting shift in public attitudes about the two parties on national security for the first time in a generation. By doing so, Democrats could ease long-standing concerns about their party on national security, improve their political standing, and cut into one of the last issue areas in which Republicans hold a strong advantage. . . .

Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research (pdf) 9/4
Assessing the Impact of Palin on the Women's Vote
... Overall, while the selection of Palin is seen positively by women voters, it is also the case that her selection has given little lift to the Republican ticket and significant questions remain about her to be answered. Women voters – married and unmarried alike – were impressed with Palin's poise and confidence, but wonder what she stood for and how she would address America’s most pressing problems. . . .

Democracy Corps 9/4
Obama Consolidates Democrats and Clinton Supporters
Barack Obama emerged from the Democratic convention with the Democratic Party unified behind him and a solid lead in the presidential battleground states. In the latest Democracy Corps survey, conducted after the Democratic convention, Obama leads John McCain by 5 points nationally (49 to 44 percent) and holds a striking 6-point advantage (49 to 43 percent) in a Republican-tilted battlefield that voted for Bush by 4 points in 2004. . . .

EMILY's List (pdf) 9/4
Women Voters and Sarah Palin
Independently of any late-breaking news regarding Sarah Palin's family situation, the results of this poll for EMILY's List among women voters clearly demonstrate that John McCain selection of Governor Palin as his running mate will create more of a drag than a lift on the Republican ticket. . . .

Charlie Cook 9/4
Obama Win Requires Four-Part Coalition
There are a dozen ways to slice and dice this year's electorate and how it breaks down. Indeed, every pollster and analyst seems to do it a bit differently. One way is to think of a stool with four legs. . . .

CBS News: Poll Positions 9/3
The Politics Of Hurricanes
Three years after Hurricane Katrina devastated the Gulf Coast, another major storm - Gustav - was heading that way, just as the Republican National Convention was about to start. Hurricanes do sometimes have an impact, not only on campaigns, but on opinions about the president, and perceptions of government in general. . . .

ABC News 9/2
With Gustav Gone, Economy's Still Stormy
Hurricane Gustav's blown through, but the Republican National Convention still faces a more long-running storm: Consumer confidence, in the tank all year, is its lowest since the GOP lost the White House in 1992. . . .

ABC News: The Numbers 9/2
Work-Life Balance: Beyond the Politics
Sarah Palin's selection as the Republican nominee for vice president has created a swirl of interest in a sensitive subject: The challenging decisions faced by parents in their home-life vs. work-life balance. . . .

Campaigns & Elections: John Zogby 9/2
Why We Won't Call Cells
... I get asked regularly why it is we have opted not to conduct surveys using cell phones, so let me explain why. The question arises because of reports in the media about the increasing number of households-particularly those with younger adults-who have chosen not to install land-line phones, relying instead on their cell phones. . . .

USA Today 9/2
Obama gets 'convention bounce'
The Democratic National Convention significantly boosted Americans' views of Barack Obama as a strong leader who "shares your values" and can manage the economy and Iraq, a USA TODAY/Gallup Poll taken Saturday and Sunday finds. . . .

CBS News 9/2
Obama/Biden Take Eight-Point Lead
Democratic nominee Barack Obama's lead over Republican John McCain has grown after the Democratic convention, which 71 percent of Americans say they watched. Obama and his running mate Joe Biden now lead McCain and Sarah Palin 48 percent to 40 percent, according to the latest CBS News poll. . . .

CBS News 9/1
GOP Delegates Strongly Back Bush
The vast majority of delegates to the Republican National Convention approve of the job George W. Bush has done as president, putting them at odds with most American people and forcing soon-to-be Republican presidential nominee John McCain into a balancing act as he looks to fire up delegates in St. Paul while also courting a nationwide audience. . . .

Gallup 8/30
Can Sarah Palin Appeal to White, Female Independents?
John McCain's surprise selection of Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin as his vice presidential running mate raises again the issue of gender in presidential politics. McCain, as is typical of Republican presidential candidates, does significantly less well among women than among men, and an analysis of more than 25,000 Gallup Poll Daily tracking interviews in August shows that the biggest gender gap is among whites who are independents. . . .

ABC News: The Numbers 8/29
The Palin Equation
Part of the immediate Sarah Palin spin has been to suggest that the Alaska governor's position on the Republican ticket is a play for former supporters of Hillary Clinton. In the data, it’s hard to see. . . .

Democracy Corps 8/29
Consolidating the Hispanic Vote
Just a few months ago, analysts were questioning whether Obama had a Latino problem, given the success of Hillary Clinton among Hispanics during the primaries. Today, Obama has a chance to perform better among Hispanic voters than any Democratic presidential candidate in recent history. . . .

New York Times 8/29
Delegates Lean Toward Romney for V.P.
As Senator John McCain nears an announcement on his choice for a running mate, nearly 4 in 10 of the Republican delegates preparing to head to St. Paul, Minnesota for their party’s convention say they would like to see the presumptive nominee select Mitt Romney, according to a New York Times/CBS News Poll. . . .

ABC News: The Numbers 8/28
Obama's Laundry List
Barack Obama’s chief challenges tonight are to persuade voters he’s sufficiently seasoned for the presidency, better define his theme of “change” and cement his advantages on key domestic issues, chiefly the economy. . . .

ABC News 8/28
Surging Pride Among Blacks Greets Nomination
Nearly two-thirds of African-Americans believe their child could be president -- far more than the number of whites who say so, and an example of the surging pride blacks express in Barack Obama's nomination for the presidency. . . .

Better World Campaign 8/28
American Voters Reject "Going It Alone"
The United Nations Foundation and its sister organization, the Better World Campaign, released today the results of a six-month public opinion research project indicating shifts in the issues Americans are concerned about internationally and the approach they want the United States to take. . . .

Los Angeles Times: Dick Meyer 8/27
What 'culture war'?
... The idea that there is vast war over the moral and spiritual compass of the nation is a dramatic narrative, and it has dominated popular political analysis for nearly two decades. It makes for potent, inflammatory political commercials. It just doesn't have the added virtue of being true. . . .

The Hill: Mark Mellman 8/27
A plethora of polls, a net loss of knowledge
I'd love to know what is going on in this presidential race — and as a pollster I really should. Instead of enhancing my overall understanding, though, the plethora of polls too often leads to a net loss of knowledge. . . .

Democracy Corps 8/26
Audacity of Hope
At a time when most national surveys show the presidential race tightening, Barack Obama’s support among America’s youth remains robust and stable. Young people’s enthusiasm for turning out and their engagement in this election are undiminished in this time period, despite the new, largely negative tone of the campaign. . . .

CBS News: Poll Positions 8/26
How Do You Gauge Voters' Feelings?
... Polls measure not only how people view the candidates, not only whether or not they will vote for them, not only whether they generally like them or dislike them. Rather, polls try to sort out the nuances in how voters feel about the strengths and weaknesses of the candidates, setting up the convention narratives. . . .

ABC News: The Numbers 8/25
Rethinking Working-Class Whites
Who’s a working-class white? In political terms it matters more than you might think. Barack Obama trails John McCain among whites who haven't gotten through college, the definition that caught on during the Democratic primaries. But use another definition and the tables turn: Among whites with incomes under $50,000, our latest ABC/Post poll finds Obama slightly ahead. . . .

Harvard Institute of Politics 8/25
Youth Polling Update
As part of Harvard’s Institute of Politics ongoing analysis of 18 to 24 year old voters dating back to 2000, the IOP has conducted a survey of N=1,031 18 to 24 year olds on issues related to the 2008 campaign for President. . . . Heading into the Democratic convention, Senator Obama holds a solid 23-percentage point lead over Senator McCain, 55% to 32% -- with 13% undecided. . . .

Pew Research Center 8/25
Men or Women: Who's the Better Leader?
Americans believe women have the right stuff to be political leaders. When it comes to honesty, intelligence and a handful of other character traits they value highly in leaders, the public rates women superior to men, according to a new nationwide Pew Research Center Social and Demographic Trends survey. . . .

Democracy Corps 8/25
Reagan Democrats and Barack Obama
Going into the Democratic convention, Barack Obama remains a candidate with unique strengths and unique challenges. He has yet to close the deal with many white, working-class voters who normally vote Democratic. Winning back these Democratic defectors and Reagan Democrats will be a key goal for Obama in his quest for the presidency. . . .

Washington Post 8/25
In the Quake Model, Rumblings Favor Obama
More than a quarter-century ago, a historian with an interest in American politics was at a dinner party at the California Institute of Technology and found himself seated next to a Soviet geophysicist and mathematician who studied earthquake prediction. Before the evening was out, Allan Lichtman, the historian, and Vladimir Keilis-Borok, the geophysicist, started on a collaboration that would eventually draw the attention of presidents and politicians who would be president. . . .

New York Times 8/25
Delegates for Clinton Back Obama, but Show Concerns
Delegates to the Democratic National Convention arrive in Denver having largely put aside the deep divisions of the primary fight between Senators Barack Obama and Hillary Rodham Clinton, although some hold lingering concerns about Mr. Obama’s level of experience, according to a New York Times/CBS News poll. . . .

Washington Post 8/24
Support for Each Candidate Holds Steady
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican John McCain are locked in a highly competitive race for the White House, with voters giving McCain a clear edge as a potential commander in chief but Obama a sizable advantage on economic issues, the subject of greatest concern to voters, according to a new Washington Post-ABC News poll. . . .

Gallup 8/24
Biden Does No Harm, but May Not Help Much
Barack Obama's selection of U.S. Sen. and former presidential candidate Joe Biden as his running mate is not generating a momentous immediate reaction from the nation's voters. Just 14% of registered voters interviewed in a new USA Today/Gallup poll say Biden makes them more likely to vote for Obama in November and 7% say less likely while 72% say he will not have much effect on their vote. . . .

ABC News: The Numbers 8/23
Veepwatch
As with the previous vice presidential picks I've outlined below, Joe Biden looks likely to have little if any direct effect on vote preferences. In a new ABC News/Washington Post poll completed last night, 13 percent of registered voters said having Biden on the ticket would make them more likely to support Obama, while about as many, 10 percent, said it would make them less likely to do so. But most by far – 75 percent – said it would make no difference in their choice. . . .

Pew Research Center (pdf) 8/22
A closer look at the parties
As the 2008 conventions approach, the Democratic Party’s advantage in party identification remains as large as it has been over the past two decades, and the Democratic Party's image remains substantially more positive than the GOP's. . . .

Greenberg Quinlan Rosner 8/22
Unmarried Women and the Progressive Coalition
A new survey released today finds unmarried women committed to change, engaged in this election, but their commitment to voting lags behind the rest of the country. If this trend continues, progressives will leave millions of votes on the table in November. . . .

University of Western Ontario 8/22
Undecided voters may not be undecided after all
As the American Presidential election approaches, and talks of a fall federal election in Canada swirl about, pollsters are scrambling to predict who will win. And while some voters say they’re undecided as to whom they’ll vote for, a University of Western Ontario professor tends to think otherwise. A new study by psychologist Bertram Gawronski suggests a new way to read the minds of undecided voters. . . .

Catholics for Choice 8/22
The Catholic Voter
Catholic voters, who make up 25% of the American electorate, show little interest in so-called values issues to help them decide who should be the next president, according to a survey of 1,033 Catholic voters conducted July 8 to 15, 2008. Instead, they want the next president to focus on the basics of improving the economy, ending the war in Iraq, and keeping the country safe from terrorism. . . ..

Pew Research Center 8/21
More Americans Question Religion's Role In Politics
Some Americans are having a change of heart about mixing religion and politics. A new survey finds a narrow majority of the public saying that churches and other houses of worship should keep out of political matters and not express their views on day-to-day social and political matters. For a decade, majorities of Americans had voiced support for religious institutions speaking out on such issues. . . .

NPR 8/21
Poll Zeroes In On Weak Spots For McCain, Obama
An NPR poll of likely voters in 19 battleground states finds about half consider Illinois Sen. Barack Obama too risky. Those polled rank Arizona Sen. John McCain slightly behind Obama in terms of independence. . . .

New York Times 8/21
Voters Want Priority to Be Economy
Senators Barack Obama and John McCain are heading into their conventions neck and neck in the presidential race, with voters focused overwhelmingly on economic issues but convinced that the candidates are not paying enough attention to their priorities, according to the latest New York Times/CBS News poll. . . .

ABC News: The Numbers 8/20
Tightness
We're looking today at the latest polls -- there's been a bunch out this week. Whether the race has tightened gets a "probably-a-little" from us. But while it is tight, it's been tight. More important is why, and how the campaigns are attacking it. . . .

UVA: Larry J. Sabato 8/20
Convention bounces in recent history
Forget the Olympics. Political junkies are in the convention pre-season. As we approach the Democratic National Convention on August 25 to 28 and the Republican National Convention on September 1 to 4, analysts just want to know one thing: How big are the bounces? . . .

Battleground 2008: Democratic Analysis (pdf) 8/20
An Appetite for Change
With fewer than 11 weeks to go, Americans remain deeply dissatisfied with the direction of the country and President Bush’s leadership. Four dollar a gallon gas, a war that has dragged our country into recession and made us less safe, a health care system in crisis – and a President and Party seemingly oblivious to the nation’s pain. Voters’ appetite for change remains intense and palpable. . . .

Battleground 2008: Republican Analysis (pdf) 8/20
Not So Fast Mr. Obama
Many Americans, and perhaps observers from around the world, seem to be convinced that Barack Obama is the next President of the United States – as if there were no election this fall and the voters did not have a choice to make. This attitude is one that has permeated the pundits, the media and some critics contend even the Democratic nominee’s campaign. But it is not true. . . .

EMILY'S List (pdf) 8/20
Women on Politics and Society
Women voters' strong support is giving Barack Obama a sizable base in his race against John McCain and it also is providing Democrats with a significant advantage in the race for Congress. . . .

Bloomberg 8/20
Obama, McCain Deadlocked
Barack Obama and John McCain are locked in a tight battle for president, with the Democrat capitalizing on voter concern over the economy and energy and the Republican benefiting from his experience and success in neutralizing the issue of the unpopular Iraq war. . . .

Drum Major Institute 8/19
Middle Class Households are Fearful Families
DMI's first annual survey on the Middle Class and Public Policy reveals that America’s middle-class households are fearful families -- overwhelmingly pessimistic about the direction of the country, especially the economy and high gas prices. . . .

CBS News 8/19
Clinton Is VP Favorite Among Dem Delegates
Senator Hillary Clinton is by far the favorite choice for the number two spot on the Democratic ticket, according to a CBS News/New York Times poll of delegates to the Democratic convention. When asked who they would like Barack Obama to select, 28 percent volunteer her as their top choice for Vice Presidential nominee. . . .

ABC News: The Numbers 8/18
The View from Tblisi
A poll done in Tblisi and Moscow finds sharp differences in the two capitals over their conflict – but a substantial sense in Tblisi that the Georgian government shares some responsibility for it. . . .